QUANTIFYING THE PREDICTABILITY OF NOISY NONLINEAR BIOGEOCHEMICAL SYSTEMS
TITLE:
QUANTIFYING THE PREDICTABILITY OF NOISY NONLINEAR BIOGEOCHEMICAL SYSTEMS
DATE:
Friday, November 7th, 2008
TIME:
3:30 PM
LOCATION:
GMCS 214
SPEAKER:
Barbara A. Bailey, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University
ABSTRACT:
Statistical modeling of dynamical systems makes the estimation and construction of confidence intervals for interesting quantities from data possible. When noise is an integral part of the system’s dynamics, a nonlinear time series approach can be used to quantify the dynamics and predictability of the system. This involves fitting nonlinear models and estimating dynamical systems quantities of interest such as global and local Lyapunov exponents, along with measures of uncertainty for these estimates. This approach will be used quantify the predictability of the effects of different types of noise on a simple biogeochemical model of plankton dynamics. The models consist of nonlinear systems of first-order differential equations for the flows or intercompartmental exchanges among nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus.
HOST:
Jose Castillo
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