Modeling Measles Transmission Dynamics in Adults and Children in Nepal: Implications for Eradication and Control through Monitored Vaccination Strategies

October 25, 2024

TIME: 3:30 PM

LOCATION: GMCS 314

SPEAKER: Dr. Anjana Pokharel, Tribhuvan University, Nepal

ABSTRACT:

Despite the availability of vaccines, measles continues to cause outbreaks worldwide. For example, in Nepal, even with the implementation of the National Immunization Program, measles remains a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. Potential causes for frequent measles outbreaks hampering the WHO’s goal of measles eradication are improper vaccination program implementation and a low level of measles cases in adults. In this talk, I will first present a transmission dynamics model of measles to assess the effects of monitored vaccination programs on individuals who skipped routine vaccinations, aiming for better measles control. We validated the model using Nepal’s yearly incidence data from 2000 to 2019. We calculated the vaccinated reproduction number, Rv, which helps identify the vaccine implementing condition for measles eradication (Rv<1). Our model simulations help identify optimal vaccination strategies for controlling outbreaks. In the second part of the talk, I will present a model introducing an adult–child vaccination program. The results show that while children are the primary targets, small outbreaks in adults can hinder eradication, suggesting that combined vaccination programs may be necessary to achieve the WHO’s goal of global measles eradication.

HOST: Naveen Vaidya

VIDEO: