TITLE:

Improved Validation of Conceptual Climate Models Via Adaptive Data Analysis

DATE:

Friday, November 3rd, 2017

TIME:

3:30 PM

LOCATION:

GMCS-314

SPEAKER:

Dr. Charles D. Camp, Department of Mathematics, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.

ABSTRACT:

Conceptual models are often used to model the Earth’s climate since they
are sufficiently simple as to allow an analysis of their fundamental structures;
thereby investigating the core processes underlying the observed behavior.
However, because of their high degree of simplification, they usually can only
qualitatively match empirical records. Frequently, disparate models have
comparable correlations with any given observation even when based on substantially
different physics. Simple comparisons of model results to observations have proven
insufficient to distinguish between such models. Furthermore, the models can
display large sensitivity to the choice of model parameters and forcing functions.

Using the Pleistocene glacial cycles as a test case, we will show how modern
time series analysis techniques, such as Empirical Mode Decomposition, can
be used to extract and compare subtler features of the observational records
and of the model outputs, thereby improving model formulation, parameterization and validation.

HOST:

Dr. Sam Shen

DOWNLOAD:

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