DATE:

Friday, May 22, 2020

TIME:

3:00 PM

LOCATION:

Virtual Zoom Conference

SPEAKER:

Dr. Richard Greenblatt, Computational Science Research Center, San Diego State University

ABSTRACT:

The Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing global economic slump are defining features of our current condition. This review will first consider briefly the biology of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the disease pathophysiology. Then it will present a classification of a range of computational methods in use to model the epidemiology, focusing on two of these models. The deterministic SIR/SIRD model is foundational for understanding the central concepts of reproduction number(R-naught), herd immunity, and the infection fatality ratio (ifr). A mechanistic Bayesian (ICL) model illustrates the use of probabilistic computational methods to estimate key parameters from population data. If time permits, some features of the virus-induced recession will be considered.

HOST:

Mark Pflieger

VIDEO: