|
Disease dynamics are intimately
connected to biological,
environmental and social
processes that take place
at multiple scales and over
various levels of social
and biological organization.
Further, in a highly interconnected
world, epidemic outbreaks
become instant potential
health and/or economic global
threats with increasing
segments of the population
playing active roles on
the transmission patterns
of infectious diseases like
influenza. Individual and/or
group actions and/or decisions
and/or activities can enhance
or reduce the effectiveness
of intervention/control
measures in the Information
Era. Travel, social distancing,
the availability of medical
supplies (antiviral drugs
and vaccine) and timely
diagnostic tools, and the
access to quality medical
care are but some of the
factors that have been identified
as significant during this
ongoing influenza pandemic.
A fundamental challenge,
then, is to find ways of
integrating and grasping
the processes and patterns
that take place at key temporal
scales and relevant levels
of social and biological
organization and use them
to identify timely and effective
intervention strategies.
Despite the myriad of complexities
associated with disease
dynamics, macroscopic epidemic
patterns emerge but finding
effective ways of making
use of this knowledge remain.
How do we generate useful
paradigms with the limitations
inherent in reported epidemiological
data or with the challenges
posed by unreported disease
data? Further, diseases
experiencing rapid evolutionary
changes, posing a tremendous
threat to the viability
of our limited drug supply.
The evolution of resistance
to antibiotics or antiviral
drugs is one of the most
important sustainability
challenges that we face
today, a challenge that
must be central to the design
and implementation of global
public health policies.
Will evolutionary changes
at lower levels of organization,
like cross-immunity, alter
dramatically the epidemiological
landscape at the population
level? In this lecture I
will address some of these
challenges in a historical
context starting with the
work of physicians-theoreticians
like Bernoulli, Ross, Kermack
and McKendrick. The lecture
will be tied in to the epidemiology
of influenza with examples
from the H1N1 ongoing pandemic.
|